BUFBills
10-3
48
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
042
DETLions
12-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
7
14
13
48
Lions
0
14
7
21
42
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
559
521
Total Plays
68
77
Yards / Play
8.2
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
473
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
38/59(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.36
Rushing Yards
197
48
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
30
Passing 1st downs
15
27
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
71%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
5
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.76
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.18
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
41
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-13.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,687
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+23.6
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
24
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Lions
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U