BUFBills
2-4
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
67°F
9 mph
9
CARPanthers
2-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
67°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
0
13
20
Panthers
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
167
425
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
3.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.20
Passing Yards
114
309
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.15
Rushing Yards
53
116
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
20
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.14
-12.58
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-2.81
-3.44
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
22
67
Penalty EPA
-2.15
-7.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-37.1
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-37.1
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
9
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U