BUFBills
-
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
5 mph
25
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
1
3
7
18
Patriots
0
10
0
15
25
Spread
+13
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
441
Total Plays
48
79
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
186
368
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
39/55(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.19
Rushing Yards
90
73
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
10
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.83
-8.37
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-2.10
-2.27
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
55
Penalty EPA
-7.84
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model82.7%
Spread Pick
Bills+13.0
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+46.4
Final Difference
271.4
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U