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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
-
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
5 mph
25
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
1
3
7
18
Patriots
0
10
0
15
25

Spread

BUF logo
+13

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
276
441
Total Plays
48
79
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
186
368
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
39/55(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.19
Rushing Yards
90
73
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
10
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.83
-8.37
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-2.10
-2.27
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
55
Penalty EPA
-7.84
-4.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model82.7%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+46.4
Final Difference
271.4
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
10/05
-4.3
20
10/19
7.1
91
10/26
-2.2
34
11/02
-3.2
26
11/09
-6.4
8
11/17
-2.9
28
11/23
13.7
100
11/30
-4.0
22
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Value
Ptile
11/25
5.7
85
12/03
-0.7
44
12/09
15.7
100
12/16
-4.1
25
12/23
-1.5
38
12/29
10.4
96
01/12
10.8
97
01/20
-1.9
36
02/03
-0.5
46
09/07
-2.1
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19

EPA

EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31

EPA

EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
11
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-9
L
L
P
11/02
-9
L
L
P
11/09
-10
L
L
P
11/17
-2
L
L
P
11/23
23
W
W
P
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
W
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
7
W
L
P
11/02
-3
L
W
P
11/09
10
W
W
P
11/13
-3
L
L
P
11/23
20
W
W
P
11/30
-23
L
L
P
12/07
3
W
L
P
12/14
23
W
W
P
12/21
40
W
W
P
12/28
13
W
W
P