BUFBills
1-2
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
7 mph
0
NEPatriots
3-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
6
3
0
16
Patriots
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
277
Total Plays
73
52
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.34
Passing Yards
244
187
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.07
Rushing Yards
134
90
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.17
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-2
-18
Sack EPA
-1.39
-2.51
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
74
Penalty EPA
-7.45
-9.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-56.0
Home QB Adjustment
-52.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-47.0
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-52.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
14
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U