nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
1-2
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
7 mph
0
NEPatriots
3-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
6
3
0
16
Patriots
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

BUF logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
378
277
Total Plays
73
52
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.34
Passing Yards
244
187
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.07
Rushing Yards
134
90
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.17
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-2
-18
Sack EPA
-1.39
-2.51
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
74
Penalty EPA
-7.45
-9.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-56.0
Home QB Adjustment
-52.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-49.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
11/23
-3.2
28
11/29
8.6
95
12/06
6.2
88
12/13
0.6
54
12/20
1.9
64
12/27
-2.6
32
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-52.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
16
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
4
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
14
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
8
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-7
L
P
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
9
W
W
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/27
10
W
W
U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
O
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-10
L
L
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/24
-2
L
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/22
27
W
W
U