BUFBills
5-3
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
15 mph
20
NEPatriots
5-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Patriots
7
3
3
7
20
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
168
370
Total Plays
43
78
Yards / Play
3.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.10
Passing Yards
108
226
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.20
Rushing Yards
60
144
Rush Attempts
18
43
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.79
-4.79
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-4.07
-4.79
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
22
15
Penalty EPA
-3.71
-1.42
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U