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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
9-4
35
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
6 mph
31
NEPatriots
11-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
14
14
35
Patriots
14
10
0
7
31

Spread

BUF logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
349
385
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.26
Passing Yards
181
139
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.15
Rushing Yards
168
246
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
9.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.63
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
83%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.46
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-3.17
-4.84
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-7.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
+12.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
-28.3
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
09/28
2.8
70
10/05
4.9
83
10/13
-5.1
16
10/26
1.4
61
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
68
11/16
11.9
99
11/20
-7.8
5
11/30
1.7
62
12/07
10.9
98
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
4.9
83
10/05
-0.9
43
10/12
5.6
87
10/19
5.8
88
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
41
11/13
3.3
74
11/23
0.5
55
12/01
2.9
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
9
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29

EPA

EPA / Play
4
19
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
22
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
12
W
L
O
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
29
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
6
W
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
O
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O