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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
8-6
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
7 mph
37
NEPatriots
11-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
4
3
0
10
Patriots
0
13
10
14
37

Spread

NE logo
-11

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
326
411
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.20
Passing Yards
242
218
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.10
Rushing Yards
84
193
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.45
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-39
-6
Sack EPA
-10.90
-2.40
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-3.72
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+272
Home nfelo
1,719
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-29.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
09/24
1.1
60
10/01
-3.4
28
10/08
-8.7
6
10/22
3.9
80
10/29
2.0
67
11/02
3.6
78
11/12
-7.4
11
11/26
-0.3
49
12/03
-8.3
7
12/17
3.4
77
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.6
56
10/15
0.5
55
10/22
2.7
71
10/29
3.6
78
11/12
7.0
90
11/19
8.8
95
11/26
1.4
63
12/03
-3.0
31
12/11
-5.6
17
12/17
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29

EPA

EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
8
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-4
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
P
O
10/29
20
W
W
O
11/02
-13
L
L
O
11/12
-37
L
L
O
11/19
-30
L
L
O
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/15
7
W
L
U
10/22
16
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/12
25
W
W
O
11/19
25
W
W
U
11/26
18
W
W
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/11
-7
L
L
U
12/17
3
W
W
U