BUFBills
8-6
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
7 mph
37
NEPatriots
11-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
4
3
0
10
Patriots
0
13
10
14
37
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
411
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.20
Passing Yards
242
218
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.10
Rushing Yards
84
193
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.45
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-39
-6
Sack EPA
-10.90
-2.40
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-3.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+271
Home nfelo
1,718
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-29.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U