BUFBills
8-6
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
13 mph
21
NEPatriots
9-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
3
13
33
Patriots
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
288
Total Plays
76
60
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
139
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.10
Rushing Yards
114
149
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.90
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.10
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-2.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model46.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,684
Home Field
+20.1
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-28.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U