BUFBills
6-9
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
10 mph
31
NEPatriots
13-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
42°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
14
14
0
3
31
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
321
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.12
Passing Yards
174
190
Comp/Att
23/43(53%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.13
Rushing Yards
82
131
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.43
-4.71
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-14
Sack EPA
-8.59
-6.39
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
71
34
Penalty EPA
-7.76
-3.14
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U