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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-9
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
5 mph
49
NEPatriots
12-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
21
0
0
0
21
Patriots
0
14
14
15
43

Spread

NE logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
402
482
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
5.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.36
Passing Yards
296
342
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.36
Rushing Yards
106
140
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
14%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.85
-3.04
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-18
Sack EPA
-2.44
-6.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
77
Penalty EPA
+2.80
-7.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+293
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
256.8
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
-0.8
46
10/30
2.8
72
11/06
-2.0
36
11/13
-4.4
22
11/20
-7.1
9
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
10/16
0.6
57
10/30
2.2
66
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
10.7
97
11/21
0.6
56
11/27
11.5
98
12/04
6.0
86
12/11
5.6
84
12/18
6.6
89
12/24
4.5
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
6
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/30
23
W
W
U
11/06
-16
L
L
U
11/13
-37
L
L
O
11/20
-27
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
4
W
L
U
10/30
-8
L
L
U
11/06
-4
L
L
U
11/13
21
W
W
O
11/21
31
W
W
U
11/27
18
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
L
O
12/11
7
W
L
O
12/18
18
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
O