BUFBills
6-9
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
5 mph
49
NEPatriots
12-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
21
0
0
0
21
Patriots
0
14
14
15
43
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
482
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
5.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.36
Passing Yards
296
342
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.36
Rushing Yards
106
140
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
14%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.85
-3.04
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-18
Sack EPA
-2.44
-6.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
77
Penalty EPA
+2.80
-7.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots-10.5
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+297
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-33.7
Final Difference
266.3
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U