BUFBills
8-7
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
9 mph
9
NEPatriots
12-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
10
0
0
17
Patriots
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
260
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
164
144
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.36
Rushing Yards
104
116
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.03
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-26
Sack EPA
-7.13
-5.43
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
44
55
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.6
Market Regression
-96.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U