BUFBills
6-5
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
4 mph
38
OAKRaiders
9-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
14
0
24
Raiders
3
6
14
15
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
401
Total Plays
69
68
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.25
Rushing Yards
212
139
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.48
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.59
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-9.70
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
58
65
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-4.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23
EPA
EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Raiders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U