BUFBills
8-6
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
10 mph
26
OAKRaiders
2-12
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
64°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
0
14
24
Raiders
0
13
6
7
26
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
347
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.06
Passing Yards
308
207
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.04
Rushing Yards
13
140
Rush Attempts
13
36
Yards / Rush
1.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.37
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-7
Sack EPA
-3.38
-2.12
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-1.97
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,364
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
-141.7
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
4
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U