BUFBills
-
31
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
010
LARRams
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
7
14
31
Rams
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
243
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
7.1
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.29
Passing Yards
292
191
Comp/Att
26/31(84%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.41
Rushing Yards
121
52
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
90%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-19.16
-15.62
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-5
-49
Sack EPA
-1.88
-11.33
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
+2.37
-2.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.8
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
-2.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
9
1
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
22
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
14
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U