BUFBills
2-2
30
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
91°F
5 mph
19
LARRams
3-1
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
91°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
9
1
7
24
Rams
3
10
3
3
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
345
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
5.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.17
Passing Yards
112
243
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.31
Rushing Yards
193
102
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
7.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
60%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.09
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-28
Sack EPA
-2.24
-7.79
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-5.29
-6.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model46.8%
Spread Pick
Rams+2.5
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+97.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-6.6
Final Difference
22.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
1
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U