BUFBills
10-2
42
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
044
LARRams
6-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
7
21
42
Rams
7
11
14
6
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
457
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
8.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.46
+0.34
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.82
Rushing Yards
103
137
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
56%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
59
99
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-14.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,684
Home Field
+54.6
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
23
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
12
23
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U