BUFBills
-
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
84°F
8 mph
13
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
84°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Ravens
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
160
308
Total Plays
48
65
Yards / Play
3.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.11
Passing Yards
95
225
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.09
Rushing Yards
65
83
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.13
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-33
Sack EPA
-3.50
-6.63
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
89
35
Penalty EPA
-10.30
-7.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
1
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
2
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U