BUFBills
-
3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
12 mph
47
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
3
0
3
Ravens
14
12
14
7
47
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
153
369
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
2.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.67
+0.11
Passing Yards
70
252
Comp/Att
11/33(33%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
2.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.84
+0.18
Rushing Yards
83
117
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
13%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-5.73
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-28
-8
Sack EPA
-8.50
-2.77
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
100
78
Penalty EPA
-12.56
-8.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+208
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-37.6
Market Regression
+42.9
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
N. Peterman
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-37.6
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U