BUFBills
2-1
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
020
BALRavens
2-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
10
3
23
Ravens
14
6
0
0
20
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
296
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.05
Passing Yards
201
134
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.32
Rushing Yards
125
162
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.62
-9.17
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.00
-2.77
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
31
70
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-7.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.5
Away QB Adjustment
+22.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U