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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ ravens week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-0
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
8 mph
35
BALRavens
1-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
7
0
10
Ravens
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

BAL logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
236
427
Total Plays
57
54
Yards / Play
4.1
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.28
Passing Yards
155
156
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.41
Rushing Yards
81
271
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-4.01
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-1
Sack EPA
-9.02
-1.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
38
79
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-3.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.1
42
12/17
-0.3
47
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.8
95
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.7
38
12/10
5.9
86
12/17
-0.6
45
12/25
5.9
86
12/31
13.5
99
01/20
10.5
98
01/28
-1.1
43
09/05
9.7
96
09/15
0.7
53
09/22
9.2
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bills logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1

EPA

EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
2
21
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Ravens logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
1
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
1
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/17
21
W
W
U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
6
W
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
12/31
37
W
W
O
01/06
-7
L
L
U
01/20
24
W
W
P
01/28
-7
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
P
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O