BUFBills
3-0
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
8 mph
35
BALRavens
1-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
68°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
7
0
10
Ravens
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
427
Total Plays
57
54
Yards / Play
4.1
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.28
Passing Yards
155
156
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.41
Rushing Yards
81
271
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-4.01
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-1
Sack EPA
-9.02
-1.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
38
79
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
2
21
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U