BUFBills
4-4
25
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
4 mph
31
SEASeahawks
4-2
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
3
0
8
25
Seahawks
7
21
0
3
31
Spread
6
P
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
278
Total Plays
83
42
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.20
Passing Yards
263
245
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.30
Rushing Yards
164
33
Rush Attempts
39
12
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
71%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
12
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.31
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-26
-37
Sack EPA
-5.00
-6.80
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
115
75
Penalty EPA
-9.83
-7.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+87.9
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.7
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
15
20
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U