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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ seahawks week 9, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-4
25
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
4 mph
31
SEASeahawks
4-2
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
3
0
8
25
Seahawks
7
21
0
3
31

Spread

BUF logo
SEA logo
6
P

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
427
278
Total Plays
83
42
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.20
Passing Yards
263
245
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.30
Rushing Yards
164
33
Rush Attempts
39
12
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
30
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
71%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
12
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.31
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-26
-37
Sack EPA
-5.00
-6.80
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
115
75
Penalty EPA
-9.83
-7.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/27
-2.6
32
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
4.5
81
01/10
-5.1
14
01/17
2.7
71
09/11
-1.7
35
09/18
-1.0
41
09/25
0.1
49
10/02
5.3
83
10/16
0.2
51
10/23
0.0
49
10/30
-2.7
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bills logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6

EPA

EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
1
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Seahawks logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
21
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
15
20
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
10
W
W
U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
30
W
W
U
01/10
1
W
L
U
01/17
-7
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
U
09/25
19
W
W
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
0
T
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U