nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ texans week 5, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
3-1
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
3-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
14
3
20
Texans
14
3
3
3
23

Spread

HOU logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
276
425
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.03
Passing Yards
126
331
Comp/Att
9/30(30%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.16
Rushing Yards
150
94
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.23
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.40
-4.74
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-7.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+37.9
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
-19.3
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
12/17
-0.3
47
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.7
95
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
09/29
-3.7
24
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
12/03
-3.0
29
12/10
-8.7
6
12/31
2.1
64
01/06
4.5
78
01/13
8.9
96
01/20
1.2
57
09/08
0.9
55
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.8
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
3
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
3
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
16
10
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
28
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
21
W
W
U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
U
01/06
4
W
W
U
01/13
31
W
W
O
01/20
-24
L
L
P
09/08
2
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U