BUFBills
3-1
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
3-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
14
3
20
Texans
14
3
3
3
23
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
425
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.03
Passing Yards
126
331
Comp/Att
9/30(30%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.16
Rushing Yards
150
94
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.23
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.40
-4.74
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-7.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+38.0
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
-19.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
3
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
16
10
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U