BUFBills
4-0
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
3 mph
42
TENTitans
3-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
0
6
16
Titans
7
14
7
14
42
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
334
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.30
Passing Yards
275
--
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.50
Rushing Yards
95
139
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
76%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
13
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.14
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.31
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
56
46
Penalty EPA
-8.95
-5.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+11.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+31.8
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+31.8
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
24
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
3
12
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U