BUFBills
3-5
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
41
TENTitans
2-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
3
0
17
Titans
14
3
0
12
29
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
378
Total Plays
58
60
Yards / Play
5.1
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
207
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.33
Rushing Yards
89
168
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.73
-1.74
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.56
--
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
65
75
Penalty EPA
-5.33
+1.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model71.8%
Spread Pick
Bills+7.5
Expected Value
+10.6%
Cover Probability
57.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+24.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
162.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
13
19
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-3-2
O/U