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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ vikings week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
0-2
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
6
MINVikings
1-0
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
17
10
0
0
27
Vikings
0
0
0
6
6

Spread

BUF logo
+16.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
292
292
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.44
Passing Yards
164
278
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
40/56(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.38
Rushing Yards
128
14
Rush Attempts
38
6
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.84
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-32
-18
Sack EPA
-4.76
-14.39
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-9.55
-8.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-15.0

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model88.5%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+16.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.3%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,330
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-50.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+60.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
354.3
Model Spread
-15.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+60.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
11/12
5.5
86
11/19
7.3
91
11/23
-5.7
16
11/30
-3.5
27
12/10
-3.4
28
12/17
2.3
69
12/24
3.4
77
12/31
-9.7
3
09/09
0.6
51
09/16
9.6
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bills logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
20
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Vikings logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
32
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-30
L
L
O
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/24
-21
L
L
O
12/31
6
W
W
U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

7-2-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-7
L
L
O
12/17
27
W
W
U
12/23
16
W
W
U
12/31
13
W
L
U
01/14
5
W
L
O
01/21
-31
L
L
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
0
T
L
O