BUFBills
0-2
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
06
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
17
10
0
0
27
Vikings
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
+16.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
292
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.44
Passing Yards
164
278
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
40/56(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.38
Rushing Yards
128
14
Rush Attempts
38
6
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.84
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-32
-18
Sack EPA
-4.76
-14.39
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-9.55
-8.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model88.5%
Spread Pick
Bills+16.5
Expected Value
+5.3%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,333
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-50.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+60.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
354.4
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+60.1
Value
Ptile
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
7-2-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U