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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ vikings week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
2-9
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
38
MINVikings
4-7
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
1
0
0
7
8
Vikings
7
24
0
7
38

Spread

MIN logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
239
387
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.07
Passing Yards
155
177
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.40
Rushing Yards
84
210
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.56
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-26.18
-20.62
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-4.76
-1.30
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
54
20
Penalty EPA
-7.75
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-44.6
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
-43.4
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
10/24
9.8
97
10/31
-2.5
32
11/07
0.5
52
11/14
-2.5
32
11/21
6.0
87
11/28
-2.0
36
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
10/31
0.7
53
11/07
6.4
89
11/14
-6.0
13
11/21
-4.2
22
11/28
-3.2
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bills logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9

EPA

EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
23
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Vikings logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32

EPA

EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
14
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U
11/14
2
W
W
U
11/21
18
W
W
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
W
U