BUFBills
2-9
14
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
038
MINVikings
4-7
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
1
0
0
7
8
Vikings
7
24
0
7
38
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
387
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.07
Passing Yards
155
177
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.40
Rushing Yards
84
210
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.56
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-26.18
-20.62
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-4.76
-1.30
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
54
20
Penalty EPA
-7.75
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-44.6
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U