DENBroncos
2-5
16
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
6 mph
24
SF49ers
1-6
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
9
16
49ers
3
0
0
21
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
339
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
6.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.19
Passing Yards
339
--
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
12/19(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.68
Rushing Yards
59
143
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.43
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
20%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.12
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-2.27
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
60
67
Penalty EPA
-5.68
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-33.6
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+42.6
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
13
9
49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
15
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U