DENBroncos
-
12
TBD
Paycor Stadium
73°F
7 mph
7
CINBengals
-
TBD
Paycor Stadium
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
3
6
12
Bengals
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
307
Total Plays
52
63
Yards / Play
5.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
227
221
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.01
Rushing Yards
75
86
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
16
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.62
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-26
Sack EPA
-4.83
-5.23
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
39
27
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-2.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-27.0
Market Regression
+41.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-27.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
22
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Bengals
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U