DENBroncos
11-3
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
47°F
8 mph
37
CINBengals
9-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
47°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
1
0
21
0
22
Bengals
7
13
7
4
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
353
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.05
Passing Yards
300
--
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.30
Rushing Yards
85
207
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-20.56
-13.01
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.06
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
72
45
Penalty EPA
-4.46
+0.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-90
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,699
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
5
13
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
18
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U