DENBroncos
2-0
16
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
5 mph
26
BUFBills
1-1
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
10
3
0
16
Bills
0
13
7
6
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
272
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.00
Passing Yards
255
197
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.22
Rushing Yards
111
75
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.95
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-4
-16
Sack EPA
-1.83
-6.10
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
79
69
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-11.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+98.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-33.3
Final Difference
-15.5
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U