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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bills week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-0
16
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
5 mph
26
BUFBills
1-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
10
3
0
16
Bills
0
13
7
6
26

Spread

BUF logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
366
272
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.00
Passing Yards
255
197
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.22
Rushing Yards
111
75
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.95
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-4
-16
Sack EPA
-1.83
-6.10
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
79
69
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-11.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model51.8%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+99.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-33.6
Final Difference
-12.3
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
10/30
-3.8
21
11/06
-2.2
32
11/13
-7.9
6
11/27
3.6
75
12/11
2.6
69
12/18
-4.3
17
12/25
-7.2
7
01/01
-0.0
48
09/11
-0.5
48
09/17
3.5
78
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18
12/18
2.0
64
12/24
9.2
96
09/10
0.2
53
09/17
-1.4
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
16
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
13
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
22
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/25
-23
L
L
O
01/01
18
W
W
U
09/11
3
W
P
O
09/17
25
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
L
O
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
-20
L
L
U
09/10
9
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
W
U