DENBroncos
5-0
26
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
20 mph
23
CLEBrowns
2-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
3
1
3
10
3
20
Browns
0
0
7
10
0
17
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
298
Total Plays
81
77
Yards / Play
5.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.32
Passing Yards
--
189
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.58
Rushing Yards
152
109
Rush Attempts
33
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
22%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-17.02
-16.97
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-10.09
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
81
30
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-2.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.8
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
27
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U