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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ browns week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
5-0
26
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
20 mph
23
CLEBrowns
2-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
3
1
3
10
3
20
Browns
0
0
7
10
0
17

Spread

DEN logo
CLE logo
3
P

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
442
298
Total Plays
81
77
Yards / Play
5.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.32
Passing Yards
--
189
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.58
Rushing Yards
152
109
Rush Attempts
33
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
22%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-17.02
-16.97
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-10.09
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
81
30
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-2.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.8
Market Regression
+37.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
Value
Ptile
12/07
-2.6
31
12/14
0.1
50
12/22
-3.1
29
12/28
-1.8
36
01/11
-1.2
42
09/13
-7.6
6
09/17
0.5
54
09/27
4.8
81
10/04
-5.1
15
10/11
-5.2
14
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
-6.8
11
11/30
-5.0
19
12/07
-7.8
8
12/14
-4.4
24
12/21
-13.2
1
12/28
-6.9
11
09/13
-3.2
27
09/27
-2.9
29
10/04
5.5
84
10/11
9.9
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Broncos logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30

EPA

EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
27
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Browns logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
32
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
7
W
L
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
L
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/11
-11
L
L
U
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/27
12
W
W
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
6
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-1
L
W
U
12/14
-30
L
L
U
12/21
-4
L
W
U
12/28
-10
L
W
U
09/13
-21
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
O