DENBroncos
5-0
34
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
68°F
8 mph
23
LACChargers
2-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
68°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
4
7
10
28
Chargers
10
4
3
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
311
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.08
Passing Yards
227
238
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.12
Rushing Yards
101
73
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
56%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.34
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-2
-36
Sack EPA
-0.83
-10.45
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-7.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-5-5
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-1-6
O/U