DENBroncos
4-1
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
9 mph
21
LACChargers
1-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
10
13
Chargers
7
3
9
0
19
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
265
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.13
Passing Yards
220
166
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.09
Rushing Yards
84
99
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-3.42
-3.78
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-1.83
-2.91
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
103
--
Penalty EPA
-18.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+22.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
27
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U