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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-1
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
9 mph
21
LACChargers
1-4
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
10
13
Chargers
7
3
9
0
19

Spread

LAC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
304
265
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.13
Passing Yards
220
166
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.09
Rushing Yards
84
99
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-3.42
-3.78
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-1.83
-2.91
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
103
--
Penalty EPA
-18.46
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+42.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+22.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
-7.7
5
12/13
-5.8
12
12/20
2.9
72
12/24
2.5
68
01/03
-1.3
41
09/11
3.9
77
09/18
3.6
75
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28

EPA

EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
23
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
3
W
L
U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
16
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
09/11
-6
L
W
O
09/18
24
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O