DENBroncos
3-6
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
55°F
5 mph
35
LACChargers
4-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
0
7
14
Chargers
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
235
400
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
4.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.19
Passing Yards
172
253
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.68
Rushing Yards
63
147
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
8%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.27
-0.28
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-45
-8
Sack EPA
-7.51
-1.57
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
56
40
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-2.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
11
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U