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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-6
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
55°F
5 mph
35
LACChargers
4-5
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
55°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
0
0
7
14
Chargers
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

LAC logo
-9

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
235
400
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
4.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.19
Passing Yards
172
253
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.68
Rushing Yards
63
147
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
8%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.27
-0.28
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-45
-8
Sack EPA
-7.51
-1.57
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
56
40
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-2.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Value
Ptile
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87
09/26
8.5
94
10/03
1.9
60
10/10
6.6
89
10/17
-0.2
48
10/24
-4.1
24
10/31
3.4
71
11/14
9.6
97
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
01/17
4.1
77
09/13
2.9
69
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
0.3
51
10/03
4.8
81
10/10
8.5
94
10/17
-6.3
12
10/24
2.8
67
10/31
6.1
88
11/07
5.0
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31

EPA

EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
20
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
11
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
12
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-14
L
L
O
10/17
-4
L
L
O
10/24
-45
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/14
20
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/17
-3
L
L
U
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/19
25
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/03
31
W
W
O
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
10/31
8
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
W
O