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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
10-3
22
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
64°F
6 mph
10
LACChargers
8-5
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
64°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
7
6
22
Chargers
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

DEN logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
337
288
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.22
Passing Yards
226
--
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.09
Rushing Yards
111
56
Rush Attempts
38
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.16
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.56
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
71
65
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-8.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-162
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,692
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
-128.6
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
10/05
8.9
94
10/12
3.4
73
10/19
10.1
96
10/23
7.6
90
11/02
3.9
77
11/09
8.0
91
11/16
-0.1
49
11/23
9.8
96
11/30
-1.4
40
12/07
-2.6
31
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
8.5
93
10/05
2.5
68
10/12
5.8
84
10/19
-2.1
35
10/23
3.5
74
11/02
-11.3
2
11/16
-2.3
33
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
8.5
93
12/07
-5.4
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25

EPA

EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
27
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
15
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
21
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
O
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
11/02
-22
L
L
O
11/09
24
W
W
O
11/16
-15
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
13
W
W
U
12/07
7
W
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
19
W
W
O
10/05
31
W
W
U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/19
-3
L
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/02
-37
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-9
L
L
U