DENBroncos
10-3
22
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
64°F
6 mph
10
LACChargers
8-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
7
6
22
Chargers
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
288
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.22
Passing Yards
226
--
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.09
Rushing Yards
111
56
Rush Attempts
38
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.16
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.56
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
71
65
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-8.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-161
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,691
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
-128.2
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U