DENBroncos
1-0
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
87°F
13 mph
24
KCChiefs
1-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
87°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
3
8
25
Chiefs
0
8
3
7
18
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
314
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
238
167
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.48
Rushing Yards
61
147
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-3.20
-20.82
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-24
Sack EPA
-5.09
-5.40
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
85
60
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
+9.0
Final Difference
21.8
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U