DENBroncos
3-3
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
12 mph
29
KCChiefs
5-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
44°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
10
6
19
Chiefs
8
3
3
9
23
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
276
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.08
Passing Yards
187
197
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.37
Rushing Yards
177
79
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-18.37
-4.57
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-3.54
-4.70
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
69
Penalty EPA
-4.85
+3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.5%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+20.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+30.3
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
150.9
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U