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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-5
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
15 mph
10
KCChiefs
4-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
7
17
Chiefs
0
0
7
3
10

Spread

DEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
313
258
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
124
Comp/Att
2/8(25%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.40
Rushing Yards
244
134
Rush Attempts
55
24
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
2
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-7.18
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-0.07
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
2.3
64
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
01/02
-15.3
0
01/09
-12.5
1
09/11
-4.0
25
09/18
-8.7
4
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
10/09
6.6
89
10/23
-6.5
12
10/31
-2.4
34
11/06
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23

EPA

EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
31
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
32
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
1
W
W
U
01/02
-5
L
P
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/18
2
W
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
-26
L
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-21
L
L
U
01/09
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-34
L
L
O
09/18
-45
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
5
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
O
10/23
28
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
U
11/06
-28
L
L
U