DENBroncos
3-5
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
15 mph
10
KCChiefs
4-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
7
17
Chiefs
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
258
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
124
Comp/Att
2/8(25%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.40
Rushing Yards
244
134
Rush Attempts
55
24
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
2
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-7.18
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-0.07
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U