DENBroncos
7-4
44
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
6 mph
13
KCChiefs
3-8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
7
14
10
38
Chiefs
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
222
Total Plays
73
71
Yards / Play
5.7
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.42
Passing Yards
168
128
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
16/43(37%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.63
Rushing Yards
245
94
Rush Attempts
45
26
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
13
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-13.16
-17.14
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-6
Sack EPA
-8.74
-2.17
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+6.5
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,324
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-29.7
Final Difference
-138.7
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U