DENBroncos
3-8
6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
8 mph
10
KCChiefs
7-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
3
6
Chiefs
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
359
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
4.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.09
Passing Yards
86
174
Comp/Att
9/28(32%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.03
Rushing Yards
161
185
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-4.46
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-22
Sack EPA
-9.43
-4.37
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
35
60
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-7.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+35.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+35.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U