DENBroncos
9-2
35
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
4 mph
28
KCChiefs
9-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
14
7
35
Chiefs
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
535
452
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
8.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.25
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.81
+0.12
Rushing Yards
132
159
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
57%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.73
-6.39
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
75
102
Penalty EPA
-8.35
-11.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-142
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U