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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
9-2
35
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
4 mph
28
KCChiefs
9-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
14
7
35
Chiefs
7
14
0
7
28

Spread

DEN logo
-5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
535
452
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
8.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.25
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.81
+0.12
Rushing Yards
132
159
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
57%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.73
-6.39
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
75
102
Penalty EPA
-8.35
-11.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-140
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
-16.7
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Value
Ptile
09/15
6.3
88
09/23
11.5
97
09/29
10.7
96
10/06
13.2
99
10/13
2.9
70
10/20
3.0
71
10/27
3.0
71
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
11/24
-3.8
25
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
09/15
1.5
61
09/19
-3.4
28
09/29
2.2
66
10/06
-3.9
25
10/13
-7.0
11
10/20
2.0
64
10/27
0.3
52
11/03
-3.7
27
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22

EPA

EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
19
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
7
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
6
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/23
16
W
P
O
09/29
32
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
16
W
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
O
10/27
24
W
W
O
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
1
W
L
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/29
24
W
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
17
W
W
U
10/20
1
W
L
U
10/27
6
W
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O