DENBroncos
8-3
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
18 mph
16
KCChiefs
7-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
6
3
6
29
Chiefs
0
7
3
6
16
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
151
Total Plays
80
45
Yards / Play
4.8
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.35
Passing Yards
174
110
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.62
Rushing Yards
214
41
Rush Attempts
45
15
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
21
9
Red Zone %
14%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.99
-8.77
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-43
Sack EPA
-4.47
-11.97
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
32
35
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-2.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model59.4%
Spread Pick
BroncosN/A
Expected Value
+17.1%
Cover Probability
61.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,690
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-5.0
Final Difference
-65.9
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U