DENBroncos
6-5
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
22 mph
22
KCChiefs
7-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
6
9
Chiefs
10
0
3
3
16
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
267
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.10
Passing Yards
250
178
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.09
Rushing Yards
154
89
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.65
+1.20
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-6
Sack EPA
-2.53
-1.34
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
60
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-0.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
+11.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U