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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
6-5
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
22 mph
22
KCChiefs
7-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
6
9
Chiefs
10
0
3
3
16

Spread

KC logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
404
267
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.10
Passing Yards
250
178
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.09
Rushing Yards
154
89
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.65
+1.20
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-6
Sack EPA
-2.53
-1.34
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
60
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-0.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
+11.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
2.5
71
09/26
-0.5
48
10/03
-6.8
12
10/10
2.0
68
10/17
-2.0
38
10/21
-2.1
37
10/31
-3.8
25
11/07
-0.7
48
11/14
-3.0
32
11/28
-0.1
53
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
8.2
93
09/26
2.6
73
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
3.0
76
10/17
2.6
72
10/24
-6.4
13
11/01
-2.1
37
11/07
-3.1
31
11/14
13.3
99
11/21
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
5
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
11
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/26
26
W
W
U
10/03
-16
L
L
U
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
10/31
7
W
W
U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/28
15
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-1
L
L
O
09/26
-6
L
L
U
10/03
12
W
W
O
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
U
11/07
6
W
L
U
11/14
27
W
W
O
11/21
10
W
W
U