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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
8-6
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph
33
KCChiefs
10-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
0
10
Chiefs
21
0
0
12
33

Spread

KC logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
246
484
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
4.3
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
17/43(40%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.09
Rushing Yards
63
238
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-5.21
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
70
65
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41
10/24
-0.5
45
10/30
-3.8
21
11/06
-2.2
32
11/13
-7.9
6
11/27
3.6
75
12/11
2.6
69
12/18
-4.3
17
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
11/13
-5.1
15
11/20
5.0
83
11/27
-4.1
19
12/04
2.7
71
12/08
-0.4
46
12/18
-3.9
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
12
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U
10/24
18
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-13
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
16
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
P
U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-2
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
1
W
W
O
12/08
8
W
W
U
12/18
-2
L
L
U