DENBroncos
8-6
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph
33
KCChiefs
10-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
0
10
Chiefs
21
0
0
12
33
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
484
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
4.3
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
17/43(40%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.09
Rushing Yards
63
238
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-5.21
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
70
65
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+21.3
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-12.7
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U