DENBroncos
4-11
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
2 mph
27
KCChiefs
12-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
7
7
24
Chiefs
6
7
0
14
27
Spread
+13
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
374
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
190
--
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.25
Rushing Yards
117
46
Rush Attempts
24
17
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-3.32
-4.57
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-9.04
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
23
31
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-7.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+249
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+30.4
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+31.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
-15.1
Market Regression
+61.9
Final Difference
297.4
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
22
21
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U