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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
12-3
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
13
KCChiefs
6-9
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
7
7
20
Chiefs
0
7
3
3
13

Spread

KC logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
303
139
Total Plays
71
42
Yards / Play
4.3
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
175
57
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
2.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.39
Rushing Yards
128
82
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
61%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.46
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.89
-1.65
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
57
10
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.6%
Cover Probability
63.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+16.7
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-135.0
Home QB Adjustment
-122.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
-245.3
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
10/12
0.5
55
10/19
7.2
93
10/26
3.6
76
11/02
0.1
52
11/06
-7.7
6
11/16
0.4
54
11/30
2.5
68
12/07
2.3
67
12/14
8.7
96
12/21
1.1
59
C. Oladokun headshot

C. Oladokun

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-122.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
17
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
15
20
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
7
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
12
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
12/07
7
W
L
O
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
-14
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
13
W
W
U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-3
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
U