DENBroncos
7-0
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
3-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
1
10
7
18
Colts
7
10
0
10
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
365
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
6.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
274
245
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.32
Rushing Yards
35
120
Rush Attempts
14
40
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
20
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.24
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.45
-1.58
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-3.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+61.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
-22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
32
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U