nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ colts week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
7-0
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
3-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
1
10
7
18
Colts
7
10
0
10
27

Spread

IND logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
309
365
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
6.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
274
245
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.32
Rushing Yards
35
120
Rush Attempts
14
40
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
20
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.24
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.45
-1.58
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-3.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+61.7
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
-22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
-3.1
29
12/28
-1.8
36
01/11
-1.2
42
09/13
-7.6
6
09/17
0.5
54
09/27
4.8
81
10/04
-5.1
15
10/11
-5.2
14
10/18
-4.2
20
11/01
3.7
77
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
12/28
0.6
54
01/04
8.1
91
01/11
2.5
68
01/18
-9.3
5
09/13
-1.7
38
09/21
-2.6
32
09/27
-1.9
36
10/18
6.1
88
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Broncos logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Colts logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
32
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
20
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-9
L
L
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/11
-11
L
L
U
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/27
12
W
W
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
6
W
W
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
19
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O