DENBroncos
8-4
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
028
INDColts
12-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
9
16
Colts
14
7
0
7
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
312
Total Plays
75
70
Yards / Play
4.8
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.05
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.00
Rushing Yards
95
92
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
35%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-12.81
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.15
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
65
20
Penalty EPA
-3.17
-2.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model77.9%
Spread Pick
Colts-6.5
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
219.0
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
8
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U