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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ colts week 14, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
8-4
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
28
INDColts
12-0
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
9
16
Colts
14
7
0
7
28

Spread

IND logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
357
312
Total Plays
75
70
Yards / Play
4.8
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.05
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.00
Rushing Yards
95
92
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
35%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-12.81
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.15
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
65
20
Penalty EPA
-3.17
-2.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model77.9%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+270
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
219.0
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
09/20
2.2
65
09/27
0.6
54
10/04
2.5
66
10/11
6.0
86
10/19
4.2
77
11/01
-1.6
39
11/09
-5.7
16
11/15
4.3
78
11/26
0.5
53
12/06
-3.6
26
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
09/27
10.4
97
10/04
8.4
93
10/11
10.2
96
10/25
6.6
87
11/01
2.2
65
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
6.5
87
11/22
3.0
69
11/29
2.8
68
12/06
3.4
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Broncos logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20

EPA

EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
18
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Colts logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
8
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26

EPA

EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
20
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/19
11
W
W
O
11/01
-23
L
L
U
11/09
-18
L
L
U
11/15
-10
L
L
O
11/22
-29
L
L
U
11/26
20
W
W
U
12/06
31
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
21
W
W
U
10/04
17
W
W
O
10/11
22
W
W
U
10/25
36
W
W
O
11/01
4
W
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
U
11/15
1
W
P
O
11/22
2
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
10
W
W
U