DENBroncos
6-2
17
TBD
FedExField
70°F
027
WASCommanders
2-6
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
3
0
0
17
Commanders
7
7
0
13
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
388
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
185
214
Comp/Att
14/31(45%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.40
Rushing Yards
120
174
Rush Attempts
22
40
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.20
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-2.25
-3.89
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-6.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
-5.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Commanders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
1-7-2
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-5-2
O/U