DENBroncos
4-4
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
016
DALCowboys
6-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
6
10
3
11
30
Cowboys
0
0
0
16
16
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
294
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.18
Passing Yards
219
212
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
19/39(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.21
Rushing Yards
190
82
Rush Attempts
41
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.07
-2.46
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-32
-20
Sack EPA
-6.30
-2.73
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
37
38
Penalty EPA
-4.94
-5.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+31.5
Home QB Adjustment
+31.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+31.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U